Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the expected value of your bets
Expected Value
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The Expected Value (EV) calculator helps you determine whether a bet is profitable in the long run. By entering your odds, stake, and win probability, you'll see how much you expect to win or lose per bet on average. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is likely profitable over time.
Tip: Even bets with small +EV can be powerful when repeated consistently. Look for value, not just winners.
Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Value (EV) is a statistical measure of what you can expect to win or lose on average per bet. It helps you determine if a bet is profitable in the long run based on the odds and your estimated probability of winning.
Input your odds, stake, and estimated win probability. The calculator will show the expected value in dollars and as a percentage. A positive EV means your bet is profitable over time, while a negative EV suggests a losing strategy.
You can estimate win probability using data, models, expert analysis, or market consensus. Some bettors convert implied probabilities from sharp sportsbooks or use their own projections.
A positive EV is always good, but generally, bets with an EV of +2% or higher are considered worthwhile. Keep in mind that small edges compound over time, especially with disciplined staking.
Yes. A +EV bet means you expect to profit over the long run, but individual outcomes can still lose. Variance is a normal part of betting, and consistent success comes from placing +EV bets over time.
The calculator is designed for straight bets, but you can use it for parlays if you know the true probability of the parlay hitting. Just enter the total parlay odds and your estimated probability.